Newsletters
2011
October 2011 Overall Economic News
I have the fortune of having spent over 45 years as a business person in an unbelievably wide variety of positions, industries, and even countries. I have seen change so radical that it numbs the mind trying to keep up with it. I have seen fads, quick fixes, economic "miracles," super hero leaders with several cases of snake oil mixed in as well. It is so easy to get caught up in the excitement of these changes that it is very easy to lose sight of the big picture.
July 2011 Overall Economic News
Two shoe manufacturers sent sales reps to the interior of Africa to assess the market. The first sent a message back saying, "No one here wears shoes. It doesn’t look like there is a market. Coming home on next flight." The second, sent a different message, "No one here wears shoes. I think the market is unlimited and will be staying indefinitely."
April 2011 Overall Economic News
It sure feels good to be busy again. One of the methods for measuring our internal results has always been through the use of 12 month moving averages (12 mma). Without getting into detail, the use of 12 mma takes out seasonal fluctuations and month to month variances. When you plot a 12 mma on a graph and compare it to a regular monthly plot, real trends become more apparent.
January 2011 Overall Economic News
In the past couple of years, I have really sweated this annual prediction time. There was so much uncertainty, confusion, and conflicting opinions that it was scary to make any type of prediction. While it is still a scary world out there, this year I certainly feel much more comfortable in putting to paper our expectations for 2011.
2010
October 2010 Overall Economic News
As has been so typical over the past few months, the rhetoric concerning the upcoming elections has been all over the place. Many say it will change the direction of the country radically, others say it will slow things down. There are many, who think it will really not have much impact on life as we see it today.
July 2010 Overall Economic News
Let's go back two years. At that time, under the leadership of President George W. Bush, the United States was accumulating the largest budget deficit in history. It was estimated to be somewhere north of $300 billion for that fiscal year. Many economists were stating that this was sure to cause dollar devaluation, inflation and increasing interest rates.
January 2010 Overall Economic News
Instead of just throwing out the predictions, I think a little drum roll and introduction is called for. I want everyone to have a good understanding of the �why� of our predictions instead of just the �whats.� So hold on and read a few pages, the predictions are in this issue someplace.
April 2010 Overall Economic News
For years our industry and, in particular, our newsletter have closely tracked housing starts and permits. We have used those numbers as predictors of the future and have made many business plans on those iconic statistics. While I don�t want to dismiss them totally, I am beginning to see that something else might do a better job of illuminating the future.
2009
October 2009 Overall Economic News
On September 2, two different nationally recognized newspapers had the following headlines:
"August Sees Fewer Job Cuts Announced"
"Companies Cut More Jobs Than Forecast in August"
I had to read these a couple of times to make sure that they are totally contradictory to each other. But then I started to realize that we are filled with contradictory news every day. Some prominent government and private economic sources are predicting a rapid recovery and a return to the years past. Some are saying we are stuck in position for a while and yet others are forecasting a doom and gloom scenario where the country will enter into the biggest depression ever. This is exhausting.
July 2009 Overall Economic News
Last quarter we talked about the initial stages of the economic recovery. You may recall that we related some of the subtle signs that presage a recovery. Well, the good news is that those signs have held to historical perspective and there is a broad based consensus that the recovery is in place and anytime now, there will be an official announcement about the end of the recession.
April 2009 Overall Economic News
There is a bit of a smile on our faces as it appears that our predictions made a few months ago are spot on. Some of you will recall that we went against all conventional wisdom and predicted the following: friendly press towards Obama which leads to a move up in consumer sentiment which leads to an upswing in consumer spending which results in a turnaround of the economy.
January 2009 Overall Economic News
You are going to read some predictions in this newsletter that will be contrary to virtually every economic authority out there. Is there a chance of realism in these predictions or are these predictions just wishful thinking? Unlike many, we are approaching 2009 with a degree of optimism. We do not believe it to be unfounded and truly believe in the merits of what we forecast.
2008
September 2008 Overall Economic News
Each quarter I gather pages and pages of supporting research in an effort to do the very best I can on this newsletter. Our data is good and our analysis is sound and the predictive results have been extremely accurate. We have predicted price increases on materials, fuel costs, interest rates and product shortages.
July 2008 Overall Economic News
Over the last month, my wife and I had time returning to our birthplaces and revisiting our past. Boy, what a shock! We retraced the paths that we walked to school, and sadly, we must admit it was not 10 miles and a 2 hour walk in the freezing snow and wind.
April 2008 Overall Economic News
Over the past couple of months, you have seen a gradual run-up in pricing on rebar. We have heard countless complaints and have had blame placed on everything from the greedy steel companies, to government conspiracy, to sunspots.
January 2008 Overall Economic News
There is no doubt in our minds that we will see a gradual increase month over month throughout 2008. We think, starting in January, that our sales will increase about 1� % each month on a 12 month rolling average basis. That will give us an overall increase of about 12% over 2007 results.
2007
October 2007 Overall Economic News
I have a great friend and business associate who has a remarkably successful business in the medical supply segment. He and I visit regularly and spend most of our time talking business. No matter how many questions I have asked and how many countless hours we have spent talking, I just can�t seem to understand his business.
January 2007 Overall Economic News
No matter how you ask it, the question is always the same, "Where is our industry headed?" We gave a preview of our predictions last quarter, and it turns out that those previews were pretty much on target with what we see now.
2006
October 2006 Overall Economic News
I remember last year when I visited my physician for my annual check-up. At the conclusion, he pronounced me in perfect health. "However," he said as I was about to leave, "That doesn�t mean that you won�t catch a cold or the flu sometime."
April 2006 Overall Economic News
This great country of ours is great because of basic fundamental values that our founding fathers believed in. One of those was the freedom of press. While we should be eternally grateful for that freedom, I sure do wish they had also mandated that the reporting must be fair and accurate.
January 2006 Overall Economic News
Several weeks ago I was having dinner with a customer. We were talking about this particular newsletter and the subject of all of our �predictions� came up. He was most curious as to how we made the predictions and how uncannily accurate they were.
2005
July 2005 Overall Economic News
Last month I was in Syracuse, New York giving a presentation to a group of business owners. Since Syracuse is not a great hub of travel with continuous flights out, I finished my program and found that I had a little over 4 hours to kill before my flight left.
April 2005 Overall Economic News
On a recent vacation trip to the Caribbean, I had the experience of following a fully loaded redi-mix truck up a very steep hill. The truck was groaning along at about 3/4 Mile per Hour. As I was crawling along behind that truck it suddenly dawned on me that there was less than 1 Mile per Hour separating me from going up the hill and from being squashed.
January 2005 Overall Economic News
Our January issue of this newsletter is our annual prediction time. Unlike last year, when we correctly predicted unprecedented changes in the market, this year we see nothing radical. The economy will enter the doldrums, but that sounds only scary until you define the doldrums!
2004
December 2004 Overall Economic News
For those of us in the construction industry, let me give you two unbelievable statistics from 2003. The good ole� US of A last year consumed slightly over 9 million metric tons on steel rebar. Not a bad year and on par with previous years.
September 2004 Overall Economic News
It never ceases to amaze me how the information that we hear through the media is so contrary to the reality of the facts. If you tune into the national network and news stations, you will hear nothing but doom and gloom.
June 2004 Overall Economic News
If people truly vote their pocket book, George Bush will be a shoo-in come November. Consumer spending reached a 48 year high last month. Consumer confidence is at its highest level in years.
